000 04377nam a22005415i 4500
001 978-3-319-03823-0
003 DE-He213
005 20160302172727.0
007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 131214s2014 gw | s |||| 0|eng d
020 _a9783319038230
_9978-3-319-03823-0
024 7 _a10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0
_2doi
050 4 _aQC902.8-903.2
072 7 _aRNPG
_2bicssc
072 7 _aSCI026000
_2bisacsh
072 7 _aSCI042000
_2bisacsh
082 0 4 _a577.27
_223
100 1 _aSchröder, Winfried.
_eauthor.
245 1 0 _aModelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections
_h[electronic resource] :
_bA Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures /
_cby Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt.
264 1 _aCham :
_bSpringer International Publishing :
_bImprint: Springer,
_c2014.
300 _aVIII, 58 p. 18 illus., 15 illus. in color.
_bonline resource.
336 _atext
_btxt
_2rdacontent
337 _acomputer
_bc
_2rdamedia
338 _aonline resource
_bcr
_2rdacarrier
347 _atext file
_bPDF
_2rda
490 1 _aSpringerBriefs in Environmental Science,
_x2191-5547
505 0 _a1. Background and Goals -- 2. Case Study 1: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Lower Saxony -- 3. Case Study 2: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Germany -- 4. Conclusions and Outlook.
520 _aOne of the most troubling and dangerous effects of climate warming is the potential for new outbreaks of vector-borne diseases – in humans as well as livestock – that had previously been eradicated, or at least effectively suppressed. One such threat is malaria. Although it is often believed to be restricted to the tropics and developing countries, climate change could bring malaria back to Europe, especially into countries where it was present until the middle of the last century, such as Germany, where Tertian malaria or vivax malaria, a rather severe form of malaria, was prevalent in north-western parts of the country until the 1950s, when it was eradicated. The vector itself, the mosquito (Anopheles atroparvus), is still present, and infected people from malarial regions could introduce a new onset of malaria. This book investigates the spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions, using the basic reproduction rate (R0) to model the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The authors mapped areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria in the federal state of Lower Saxony (pre-study) and for whole Germany (main-study) by means of geostatistics for past (1947-2007) and future periods. Projections based on predicted monthly mean air temperature data derived from the IPCC and regionally discriminated by two regional climate models (REMO, WettReg) for the countrywide study. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproductive and development cycles are accelerated. The resulting maps show that the seasonal transmission gate may be extended from an average of 3 months under present temperature conditions to up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080. Although models described in this book do not integrate such other driving factors as the distribution of water bodies serving as breeding habitats, or population density, the findings illuminated here could prove useful for establishing a monitoring scheme and for investigation and assessment of related diseases caused by temperature-dependent vectors and pathogens, including many which are dangerous for livestock.
650 0 _aEnvironment.
650 0 _aClimate change.
650 0 _aParasitology.
650 0 _aGeobiology.
650 0 _aEpidemiology.
650 1 4 _aEnvironment.
650 2 4 _aClimate Change.
650 2 4 _aClimate Change/Climate Change Impacts.
650 2 4 _aParasitology.
650 2 4 _aEpidemiology.
650 2 4 _aBiogeosciences.
700 1 _aSchmidt, Gunther.
_eauthor.
710 2 _aSpringerLink (Online service)
773 0 _tSpringer eBooks
776 0 8 _iPrinted edition:
_z9783319038223
830 0 _aSpringerBriefs in Environmental Science,
_x2191-5547
856 4 0 _uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0
912 _aZDB-2-EES
999 _c207422
_d207422